MUNUC XI Security Council Crisis


Merkava Mk3 MBT on patrol in Lebanon
This crisis was run from 0200 CST Feb 7 1999 to ~0915 CST 7 Feb 1999 at the Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL, by the delegates and staff of MUNUC XI.

This crisis is almost entirely on this web site, excluding the images used for overhead maps, and the last 2 news updates regarding Egypt (they were never written due to lack of time).

Basic Concept

This crisis takes place in Lebanon, between Israel and Syria. It begins with an escalation of Hezbollah and Israeli military attacks, and ends with the possibility of full war between Israel and Syria. Such a war could easily spread and engulf the Middle East.

This crisis had a unique twist on previous crises: the delegates were woken up for an event that was not the actual beginning of the "real" crisis. The delegates were woken up for the destruction of a refugee camp and some UN peacekeepers. While they were awake, the situation shifted from dealing with dead peacekeepers to preventing war. This shift was rather sudden (the 0615 HGM to the U.S.), and possibly subtle. The delegates were taken totally by surprise when they heardabout the movement of Syrian troops. :)

Outline

The outline of the crisis is here.

Changes to Crisis during the Run

There were no major changes to it when the crisis was run. However, due to some timing problems - the delegates didn't start until 0230 - several news releases were done at once to get the crisis back on the published schedule. By 0430, the crisis was on schedule. One additional speaker was added during the run: a report on the effects of the Hezbollah bomb. This speaker is completely optional.

The last 2 news updates regarding Egypt were dropped during the run, as they were not necessary for continuing escalation or restoration of debate. Moreover, beyond the published timeline, there were no more interventions by Information staff beyond answering HGMs. If the SC had stalled, additional escalation in the form of minor Israel-Syria skirmishes would have been easily written as needed.

The most vulnerable point of this crisis is the necessity of the U.S. sharing the 0615 HGM information to shift debate away from peacekeepers to the brewing war. This was accomplished during the run by a short talk with the U.S. delegate by an AC of the SC staff. With good, vocal U.S. delegates, that shouldn't have been necessary.

MUNUC XI Solution

The delegates of MUNUC XI solved the crisis by passing a resolution that had the following key components (+ boiler plate):
  1. A section of operative clauses dealing with the UNIFIL peacekeepers; specifically using them to patrol the Israel/Lebanon border.
  2. A section that tried to implement a long-term solution; talks between Israel, Syria, Lebanon, U.S., etc.
  3. A section that called for immediate cessation of current hostilities and withdrawl to "status quo" before the crisis
  4. A section that reiterated the main point of resolution 425 (1978) that called for complete Israeli withdrawl from Lebanon in exchange for concrete assurance of security of northern Israel.
  5. A section that imposed penalties for escalating to full war: possible revokation of U.N. voting rights & blockade of all communications and trade with involved parties.

Explosive Damage Computation

The explosion computation was done by using the power-law scaling relation for nuclear device blast damage from the "Nuclear Weapons FAQ". The yield of the device is computed in equivalent TNT tonnage by comparing the energy released vs. TNT (4520 kJ/kg). This gives radii of pressure fronts in km. For a 4 ton TNT yield, the 1 psi radius is ~355 meters (0.355 km). These radii were then drawn on a map of Tel Aviv to determine blast effects. Casualties were guessed.

A short C program to compute the radii of various pressure levels is available here. It should compile with any ANSI C compiler. Note that the computation is a simple power-law, and the powers are taken directly from the Nuclear Weapons FAQ.

Random Trivia

  1. TNT liberates 4520 kJ/kg of energy when detonated.
  2. This entire crisis was designed on Thursday and Friday, written Friday and Saturday, in HTML, on a computer in Utah, from Chicago.
  3. Total man-hours: estimated at <66, most likely ~40-50. This includes handling the normal running of the Security Council and the creation of "red herring" updates (Kosovo, Korea, Spratlys, Cyprus, Iraq). At no point did the number of people working exceed 3.
  4. Wall map purchased at Rand McNally, all other images found on the web: UNIFIL home page for UNIFIL deployment map (January 1999), others for Lebanon. Tel Aviv bomb map created by enlarging wall map, scanning, and using MS Photo Editor.
  5. Typical # of people in Crisis Room during the run: 3-4; Paul Gettings, Noam Freedman, Dan Hibshoosh, and Aaron ?? (the news anchorman).
  6. AV Equipment used: 2 video cameras, 1 mike-speaker rig for listening to committee, 1 A/V switcher, and 3 monitors for setting up shots before switching to TV in SC room.
paul@shadowfax.net